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Forum:2014 Pacific hurricane season
Future Start I'll make my worldwide predictions later. EPac's betting pools are here. Ryan1000 01:07, October 28, 2013 (UTC) Here are my predictions for the Eastern Pacific: 21 tropical depressions, 21 tropical storms, 18 hurricanes, 10 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 274 (give or take 10). A visual of my prediction can be found here. AndrewTalk To Me 01:49, January 3, 2014 (UTC) : Geez Andrew, that's a little too ''wild, don't you think? Here's my predictions: '''20 '''depressions, '''18 '''named storms, '''12 '''hurricanes, and '''5 '''major hurricanes. An incoming El Nino could make the EPac heat up a bit, but 10 majors and 18 hurricanes seem ''very ''unlikely IMO. Steven09876 05:24, January 4, 2014 (UTC) ::Expectations are rising as there is a potential El Nino bruing that could be exceptionally strong, or it could just flame out just like 2012. However, based on Levi Cowen's predication and analog years for the ATL (they ere 1957, 1963, 1968, 1972, 1982, 1991, 1994, 2002, 2009 I believe). In all of those season, something really special happened (most bland out of all those seasons was 1991, and that was during a true PDO+ era). I've also seen 1974 and 2011 listed as anologs if the El Nino does not pan out based on the US winter pattern and global weather pattern overall. And both 74 and 11 are seasons that are memorable. I haven't seen any formal predictions though last month I went with 18-8-5, but may revise that to 18-7-6. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 05:54, March 15, 2014 (UTC) 12 more days till season starts! An El Nino could make this season extremely active, so prepare guys. Steve820 20:58, May 3, 2014 (UTC) :And the season has officially began!! The potentially very active Pacific season starts now! This is just the beginning of what might be a wild season (or should I say, a rollarcoaster ride!) Steve820 00:14, May 16, 2014 (UTC) Pre-season predictions About five weeks from the start, and with the formation of an El Nino, exceptions have risen a bit. Right now, the WPAC and SPAc are active as well. Really second half of SHEM has been quite impressive. Let's get some formal predictions going. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 17:08, April 6, 2014 (UTC) :Maintaining my forecast from above. AndrewTalk To Me 20:34, April 6, 2014 (UTC) ::Lol, your NS count looks realistic, but you're cane and MH count is a bit high IMO. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 20:42, April 6, 2014 (UTC) ::El Niño looks to be the most powerful since 1997 I will put my odds at 20 to 23 ts 10 hurricanes and 6 to 8 majors. It may seem a really high prediction but with the upcoming strong El Niño might prediction well occur.Allanjeffs 01:08, April 10, 2014 (UTC) :::Because of what appears to be an extreme El Nino coming in, I'm revising my predictions to '''20-24' named storms, 9-13 hurricanes and 4-7 majors. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a record-breaking season this year, possibly on the level of 1992. Steve820 03:36, April 10, 2014 (UTC) :::::My predictions have been updated in my last blog post here. I'm thinking below normal ATL, above-normal EPac and WPac, and near-normal elsewhere. Ryan1000 19:48, April 11, 2014 (UTC) June 02E.BORIS AoI:Tropical Wave Just entered the basin, we could see development in a week's time from now. Models aren't very enthusiastic but MJO is still sitting around. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 01:44, May 29, 2014 (UTC) :MJO's been gone for a bit. It's in the WPAC/CPAC I though. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 02:36, May 29, 2014 (UTC) ::0/40%. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 00:04, May 30, 2014 (UTC) :::I think we'll see Boris from this in about a few days! Here it comes, future-Boris and the epic Amanda are just the beginnings of what appears to be a very active season. This season's going to be a wild ride for sure now! Steve820 00:16, May 30, 2014 (UTC) :::::Let's be calm here. This could be bad. Models bring it into Mexico. It is gonna be a large system that is moving slowly. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 01:45, May 30, 2014 (UTC) ::::::10/50%. Could be invest'd soon. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 12:33, May 30, 2014 (UTC) :::::::Yep, it could be. The guys in Mexico should keep their eyes out for future Boris. I have a feeling we might see a destructive Mexican storm from this invest. Steve820 22:55, May 30, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::30/70 now. It's getting there. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 23:47, May 30, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::Winds are currently at 25 MPH leeboy100 (talk) 17:28, May 31, 2014 (UTC) 93E.INVEST Invest'd. But we don't know for sure how many knts it is due to the ATCF blackout. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 20:52, May 31, 2014 (UTC) : Now at 40%/70%. Most of the models take it northward towards either southern Mexico or even Guatemala. At best I could see this becoming a minimal hurricane like Barbara from last year before impacting them, nothing stronger. It will more likely be a TS when it gets there though. 'Ryan1000' 21:22, May 31, 2014 (UTC) ::25/1009 per ATCF. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 21:24, May 31, 2014 (UTC) ::This system might help the Atlantic to get Arthur,as some models are showing a similar situation with Alma and Arthur of 2008.Allanjeffs 22:23, May 31, 2014 (UTC) :::60/80 now. Other than southerly shear, things look good. GOT storms tend to spin up rapidly. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 00:27, June 1, 2014 (UTC) :::::That's not good, especially if it remains offshore long enough. Amanda was nice because it remained well away from land, but this is forecast to make landfall in southern Mexico/Guatemala. Hopefully it doens't get too strong before its landfall. 'Ryan1000' 01:23, June 1, 2014 (UTC) ::::::This invest (Future-Boris) could be a destructive storm for Mexico. I feel bad for those guys in Mexico. Hopefully it won't get too strong, but they still need to get prepared for this thing. Steve820 03:09, June 1, 2014 (UTC) :::::: :::::::Uh oh, this is not good. I spy a developing cirulation and increasingly favorable conditions. A tropical depression could easily form in the next couple of days. Chance of formation: '''70%' for the next two days and 90% for the next five days. Western Central America and southern Mexico are getting flooded. Allan, how are you doing? AndrewTalk To Me 14:36, June 1, 2014 (UTC) :::::::A depression could come anytime today from this invest. Not good for southern Mexico, they're getting flooded from this thing. Hopefully Allan is safe. Steve820 16:34, June 1, 2014 (UTC) :::::::Lol I am doing good.My graduation is in June 13 and I am going to study physics. That is a reason I have not been here much is because I had been studying and preparing things for prom and the trip we are going to make with my classmates.How are you doing Andrew? Steven? Lol steven why are you worried? I live in La Ceiba Honduras this invest will not affect me at all. tbh we are desperate for rain in here. Many crops are dying and with the almost el niño in here which bring drought to us the outlook doesn't look better.Allanjeffs 16:40, June 1, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::On the subject of precipitation, the GFS is putting a lot of emphasis on a plume of moisture that extends from the position of 93E towards the northeast into Cuba and southern Florida. Ensembles pointing towards a precip. maxima in Guatemala. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 20:18, June 1, 2014 (UTC) Jeez, this thing's been at high chance for a while...just become Boris already. Now 90% for the next 2-5 days. Ryan1000 17:58, June 2, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Depression Two-E : Its here and expected to become Boris and leave torrential rains in Mexico.Allanjeffs 20:48, June 2, 2014 (UTC) :::Not likely to move much. A lot of uncertainty though. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 20:58, June 2, 2014 (UTC) :::::It's not moving very fast, and won't make landfall until Saturday according to the current forecast. It's only forecast to peak at 50 mph, but Amanda was also initially only forecast to peak as a TS, and look what it did in the end...the GoT has some of the warmest waters in the western hemisphere (the Gulf of California has the warmest), and wind shear is a very light 5-10 knots over the storm. Hopefully it doesn't RI over the next few days...Ryan1000'' 23:01, June 2, 2014 (UTC) ::::::I think this will be named "Boris" tonight or Tuesday morning. I can't believe they're forecasting a very slow motion, I feel bad for southern Mexico. Hope this isn't a re-Agatha. Steve820 01:07, June 3, 2014 (UTC) :::::::..THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. That mean less time over water as it was expected to make landfall on Saturday.Allanjeffs 06:06, June 3, 2014 (UTC) : That's better news intensity-wise, but still not sure with regards to it's potential for flash floods and mudslides. Ryan1000 11:35, June 3, 2014 (UTC) :::Still 30 knts. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 13:01, June 3, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Boris Its here and expected to not strength. Might get to 45mph before all is done.Allanjeffs 19:08, June 3, 2014 (UTC) :Nearing landfall. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 20:25, June 3, 2014 (UTC) ::Looks like it'll peak as a very weak TS, but it's certainly not a fail because it's causing loads of rain and possibly destruction to southern Mexico/Guatemala. Hopefully the guys over there are safe and prepared for this thing. Steve820 22:54, June 3, 2014 (UTC) ::It has already caused 5 deaths in Guatemala so its not a fail.Allanjeffs 00:01, June 4, 2014 (UTC) ::Go Boriszzzz!!!!!!!!!11 00:08, June 4, 2014 (UTC) ::::71, stop it. Tropical cyclones are powerful forces of nature and while they're incredible to watch out to sea, the ones that affect people we have to be serious about. We shouldn't be cheering for storms like Boris that could possibly kill hundreds of people. It's immature and not what these forums are supposed to be about. Anyways, looks like it's making landfall tomorrow morning, it won't get much stronger than it is now, but heavy rain and floods/mudslides will still be a threat. 'Ryan1000' 02:37, June 4, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Depression Boris Down to a TD, still causing heavy rains, and forecast to die tomorrow. 'Ryan1000' 12:32, June 4, 2014 (UTC) Remnants of Boris NHC issued their last advisory on Boris and it's dead. Flash floods/mudslides will remain a big threat over southern Mexico though, and combined with the Bay of Campeche invest could make it even worse. Hopefully we won't end up with a 50+ deaths toll once it's all done, I think this is a '''much' weaker and tamer version of Manuel and Ingrid back in September 2013. And 71, it was very immature to say that because this storm has potential to caused hundreds to rest in peace. We gotta take storms like this seriously, and in fact, I heard you could be banned from this wiki if you cheer on a storm that could kill hundreds or thousands. That's just very impolite, especially for the victims of the devastating storm. Steve820 00:03, June 5, 2014 (UTC) : Updated the header since it formed in June. In the NHC's EPac summary for May, Amanda set a record for making May 2014 the most active month in May in terms of ACE, eclipsing the former record set in 2001 by Adolph. Ryan1000 23:50, June 5, 2014 (UTC) 03E.CRISTINA 94E.INVEST News invest; at 10/40. The GFS isn't too optimistic, showing a midgrade tropical storm. However, the ECMWF and HWRF make this a 973mb and 970mb hurricane, respectively. I would not dismiss the HWRF after Amanda so quickly. I think we could see a hurricane out of this as shear is suppose to decrease to 0 accoridng to the SHIPS. The SHIPS and LGEM make this our second hurricane of the season. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 14:38, June 7, 2014 (UTC) :I think it'll become Cristina since it's got favorable enough conditions ahead. Hopefully we'll see a hurricane out of this, Steve820 16:51, June 7, 2014 (UTC) :::HWRF has a lot of intensity forecasting problems, but after Amanda, I guess anything in EPac could surprise us. This may be only 20% for two days, but it's 60% for the next five, and conditions are more than favorable enough in front of it for it to become the season's second hurricane, maybe even second major if it blows up fast enough. 'Ryan1000' 21:56, June 7, 2014 (UTC) ::::HWRF does, but so far this season, it's been doing well. Not to mention the GFS is now on board with Euro/HWRF and bombing this out. CMC shows a solid TS. Really the GFDL is the only unaggressive one due to strong shear. Still, it's gonna be over warm waters for like a week. Gonna be fun; a major is possible, but not certain. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 22:15, June 7, 2014 (UTC) ::::I don't doubt this to become Cristina even a hurricane is possible. The problem with this is the dry air that might surround it. Dry is a killer no matter if shear is perfect or water temeperatures if there is dry air it will be tough for it to strength.Allanjeffs 22:30, June 7, 2014 (UTC) :::::Well, I still root for this invest to become a major (remember Amanda's stunt?). The dry air shouldn't inhibit it too much. Future-Cristina will probably be a hurricane, but there's a slight chance at major status too if it strengthens rapidly. Steve820 22:53, June 7, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Allan, your wrong here. Dry air can not enter the storm's LLC if there is no shear, which they won't in 5 days. And it's got a large circulation, which could help fight dray air (which is quite common in the EPAC) Even then most of the dry air was fileted by Amanda. Anyhow, this is up to 40/80. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 23:59, June 7, 2014 (UTC) :::::::Environmental conditions are improving significantly for Invest 94E. I predict a weak hurricane from this system. AndrewTalk To Me 01:05, June 8, 2014 (UTC) :::::::(Edit conflict) Where are the intensity betting charts? That was pretty fun last year, maybe we should create another one here on this Wiki. Anyway it's currently 25/1007, wobbled to the N a bit during the last hours. Believe it or not, I think a tropical depression could form 09Z, and I'm rooting on NHC to raise this to 80/90 next TWO. My guess is that it should peak around 80/979 (kts). - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 01:09, June 8, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::Haven't made such a thing yet on this wiki, but I suppose we could use one for this year. I'm expecting a major hurricane at best, and a minimal hurricane at least. Looks quite a bit better now, I wouldn't be surprised if we're gonna end up talking about Christina later today or tomorrow. 'Ryan1000' 02:35, June 8, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::HS is talking about something that isn't related to HWiki, it kinda is to WPTC. I disagree though that's it gonna get classified soon, remember the LLC is still on the north side of the deep convection. I'd give it 6o/90 personally, but the NHC kept it at 40/80. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 06:01, June 8, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::I still believe this will be at most a cat 1.I really doubt a major is going to come from this.Allanjeffs 14:29, June 8, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::::At most, I think this will be a cat 2. I'm starting to doubt a major out of this, but at least Cristina could be something fun to track hopefully. Steve820 15:06, June 8, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::::Why all the negativity? Are you guys checking what I say at other forums? :P It's still 40/80 and looks okay. Yes, models have backed off somewhat, and it probably won't become a major hurricane. A Cat 1 or a TS is still possible SST's are fairly warm, shear is suppose to relax, I see a little dry air affecting this system slightly, but it mostly lies around 20N. The reason why models backed off is that it is moving more quicker, and a little more to the NW. Sometimes the models have an equatorword bias (paralytically the Euro), and they bust. This is what happened in 2013, and the same reason why almost all the storm were weak. But remember, its only June, which in 1st year El Nino's aren't suppose to the be most active month. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 15:33, June 8, 2014 (UTC) Up to 50/80. Though I'd go with 30/60 to be honest. Model support is even less now, and it looks ugly. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 23:49, June 8, 2014 (UTC) :Looks like I spoke too soon. Looks much better now. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 02:01, June 9, 2014 (UTC) 94E starting to balloon in convection and expanse, continues to organize this morning. Now 60/90 according to the NHC. 'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 15:31, June 9, 2014 (UTC) : Now 90/90, should become TD 3-E anytime now, and Cristina shortly after. 'Ryan1000' 19:24, June 9, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Depression Three-E TD. 70 knt peak. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 20:44, June 9, 2014 (UTC) : Sounds reasonable. I expect it to peak a little higher than that before the dry air gets to it, but either way, it'll be heading away from land. 'Ryan1000' 22:48, June 9, 2014 (UTC) ::I don't understand why NHC was so conservative on the TWO probabilities, but here we are with Cristina around the corner. Don't know what you guys think but personally I could see a hurricane by tomorrow 15Z or 21Z, or in fact even 09Z, a lot sooner than NHC predicted. I think it could peak around 979/80 up to 956/105 (kts). - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 23:01, June 9, 2014 (UTC) :::The storm is in highly conducive conditions but as the NHC said earlier in the discussion Three-E will not be able to intensify at a quicker pace if the mid-level and low-level centers are indeed displaced and elongated. We saw with Hurricane Ernesto in 2012 how impressive satellite presentation coinciding with a storm decoupled internally only leads to the storm falling apart, at least temporarily. We shall see how quickly these centers become affixed over one another for Three-E to take off. 'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 23:19, June 9, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Cristina 1004/35. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 00:51, June 10, 2014 (UTC) :I doubt it'll be a hurricane by 9z or even 15z. Conditions aren't that good. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 02:25, June 10, 2014 (UTC) ::Yay, Cristina has formed! I still think it'll be a Category 2 but now I'm going a bit more towards the strong Cat 1 side (85-90 mph). It should be fun to track, but if it pulls of an Amanda I'll be very shocked. Environmental conditions aren't favorable for any extreme intensification, unlike Amanda, who literally drank a full bottle of caffeine after being presented with very favorable conditions. Steve820 03:13, June 10, 2014 (UTC) :::I say this one at most will be a cat 1 but with 80mph. Might be a ts if it doesn't strength rapidly.Allanjeffs 13:28, June 10, 2014 (UTC) :::Wow I'm missing out on the season, I've been busy (again). I didn't even know Boris already came and went. Anyways wunderground says this could become a hurricane tomorrow and winds are currently at 45 MPH. leeboy100 (talk) 17:12, June 10, 2014 (UTC) :::I mean on Thursday, sorry I looked at it wrong leeboy100 (talk) 17:14, June 10, 2014 (UTC) :::::No one seems to update the active storms I guess... :/ Well anyways, this should be a hurricane in a day or two, but I don't expect this to Amanda-out and become a very strong major. Cat 2 or minimal cat 3 is the best I can see coming from Cristina. 'Ryan1000' 21:06, June 10, 2014 (UTC) ::::::I think it could become a hurricane in 2 advisories (09Z). I see no reason other than time constraint for it not to strengthen, intensity could reach MH but mostly likely in the 2~3 range. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 23:02, June 10, 2014 (UTC) :::::::I hope it becomes a hurricane by tomorrow! Environmental conditions are favorable enough, so hopefully we'll see a hurricane out of this soon. Steve820 00:02, June 11, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::Agreed with HS that it could be a cane by 9z. ATCF brings it up to 55 knts. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 00:53, June 11, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::Adv birngs it up to 55 knts. Lots of lighting noted, which is a strong indicator of RI. I think this could be a hurricane tomorrow morning. In order for RI to happen, dry air needs to decrease and CDO needs to become better organized. If that happens it could bomb out IMO. Dry air entering the E side now. CDO looks weird, but it could be Cristina's way of keeping it out. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 03:01, June 11, 2014 (UTC) Hurricane Cristina Cat 1, now 75 mph, 990 mbar, forecast to peak at cat 2. 'Ryan1000' 10:46, June 11, 2014 (UTC) : It has strengthened to 80 mph (70 kts) and 986 mbars, a peak of 85 knots (100 mph) is predicted by the NHC before weakening. Looks like we might see a Cat. 2 out of this, but there's still an outside shot of C3 if it strengthens rapidly. Steve820 22:29, June 11, 2014 (UTC) ::Cat 2 now, 85 kt/975 mbar. It'd be really cool if we could have two majors less than a month into the season... --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:41, June 12, 2014 (UTC) ::::If Cristina becomes our second major by later today or tomorrow, it would be the earliest 2nd major hurricane of any EPac season on record, beating 2010's Darby by two weeks. It's not going to be a major for very long though, if it does become one. 'Ryan1000' 03:24, June 12, 2014 (UTC) :::::Stupid Carlotta not being 100 knts. Otherwise, we'd be breaking Carlotta's record. But Cristina is stunning. Probs why the EPAC is so awesome. And I can tell this only the begging. I think this will be a major. Also of note, Cristina is tied for the 2nd earliest 3rd storm, behind Agatha 92, and tied with Carlos 85. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 04:40, June 12, 2014 (UTC) :::::I do not count Agatha because in there you are counting Ekeka and Hali I believed and they were in the central pacific not in the Epac. Anyways Cristina is looking amazing she is beautiful its rapidly approaching major hurricane status if its not one already. Anyways If Cristina becomes a major we would have more majors that last year.Expect and active Epac as a moderate El Niño is developing.I see this season more like 2009Allanjeffs 06:02, June 12, 2014 (UTC) ::::::ADT est. 110kts, probably a major next advisory. Eye completely cleared out. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 07:18, June 12, 2014 (UTC) :::::::The CPAC is a subset for the EPAc, for the billionth time. 12:32, June 12, 2014 (UTC) Major Hurricane Cristina '...CRISTINA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE...' Currently 120 mph, 960 mbar. Beats Darby of 2010 for earliest 2nd major on record by 13 days. Has another day or so until it'll begin weakening. Might even become a minimal cat 4. 'Ryan1000' 11:50, June 12, 2014 (UTC) :Go check the new adv intensity everyone. It is 125 knts. No joke!!!! HOLY SHIT!!!!!! The EPAC does it again!! 2 EI storms and it's mid-June. Wow. This so makes up for the 1 major in 2013. HOLY CRAP!!!!! YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 12:33, June 12, 2014 (UTC) ::Cristina is about to become a cat 5 in this pace if its not one already. Amazing this year will be fantastc for the Epac.Allanjeffs 13:46, June 12, 2014 (UTC) ::::It isn't a Cat 5 IMO. ATCF kept it at 125 knts for 12z. Still got some work to do if it wants to make it to a 5. Amazing nevertheless. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 13:48, June 12, 2014 (UTC) :::::150 Mph...--Isaac829 15:23, June 12, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Holy cow!!!! I thought I might wake up to a major, but not a strong Category 4! C'mon Cristina, work your way up to Category 5 and pick up where Amanda left off! --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 15:43, June 12, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Oh, and Cristina is the earliest second Cat 4 on record for the EPAC, beating Elida '84's record by 19 days. Almost 3 weeks!! This is incredible. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 15:45, June 12, 2014 (UTC) :::::::6.9 / 928.2mb/137.4kt; cat5? - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 16:04, June 12, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::Wow, how incredible. I thought it might have had a shot at 135 mph earlier today, but 150? God damn. It's now just 5 mph and 3 mbars behind Amanda. It might even have a shot at cat 5 briefly before it winds down, which would become the second earliest cat 5 ever, only 6 (or 7, if tomorrow) days after Ava in 1973. Dylan, one more notable fact is that since Elida in 1984 reached cat 4 on July 1st, this year is the first season ever with two category 4's recorded in the EPac before July. Best part is, they're both fishspinners. Keep it coming, Cristina! 'Ryan1000' 19:24, June 12, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::Weakened slightly. EDIT: Still could reach category 5 after ERC, forecasted to reach 130kt again. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 20:15, June 12, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::::Is it actually ERC'ing? AFAIK no. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 20:23, June 12, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::::If Cristina is undergoing an ERC then hopefully it rebounds nicely. Anyway, a fun little piece of trivia: this is first ''Cristina to reach hurricane strength since the name debuted 30 years ago, and Cristina '84 only made it to Category 2, making Cristina '14 the strongest incarnation by a wide margin. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 21:14, June 12, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::::::WOAH!!!! This is absolutely insane!! I never expected you to pull an Amanda on us! This EPac season is already starting to get really crazy, my gosh! Looks like it won't become a Category 5 though, it's already undergoing an ERC and environmental conditions could start getting more unfavorable afterwards. A Category 5 might come sooner than I thought, probably in July or August! I bet you Raymond last year was just a little preview of things to come in 2014, the EPac is really recovering after a 2013 filled with weak storms and C1 hurricanes! Steve820 21:42, June 12, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::::::::It's not ERCing IMO. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 21:59, June 12, 2014 (UTC) Eh...Cristina is winding down from here on out YE, I'm afraid from here on out we'll be saying good-bye to Cristina. It had it's chance at cat 5, but it seems like it missed it, just like Amanda. But it's still an amazing storm to track nonetheless. 'Ryan1000' 22:42, June 12, 2014 (UTC) :YE, it's not having an ERC right now, and I never said it was. However, it could very well undergo ERC soon. There are already concentric eyewalls and conditions are still favorable for strengthening. Also, I would hesitate to say good-bye to Cristina. I personally see it restrengthening again. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 00:24, June 13, 2014 (UTC) ::Sorry HS then. I think it will restrengthen given conditions are overall very good tomorrow, but won't IMO make it to 130 knts. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 01:01, June 13, 2014 (UTC) ::::It's continuing to wind down, now 120 mph...you sure about that HS? Well, I know Cristina will be around for a few more days, but I'd rule out Cristina bouncing back up to cat 4 again. 'Ryan1000' 03:29, June 13, 2014 (UTC) ::::I doubt it will re-strength. Its now down and will continue until death. Allanjeffs 04:05, June 13, 2014 (UTC) Hurricane Cristina (2nd time) Still on its way down, now a Category 2 with 90 kt winds and a pressure of 971 mbar. I should mention that according to Eric Blake's Twitter (@EricBlake12), before this year, we had never had two 150 mph storms before September. This year, we pulled it off BEFORE JULY. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 12:32, June 13, 2014 (UTC) :He's kinda wrong. Emilia/Gilma 94 were Cat 5's well before September 1994. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 14:14, June 13, 2014 (UTC) ::That's a good point, plus John was a Category 5 before September that year as well. He might have been referring to the EPAC proper, since Emilia, Gilma, and John all peaked in the CPAC. That being said, Emilia didn't peak until over a month from today, so we're still ahead of 1994 in that regard. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:24, June 13, 2014 (UTC) :::BTW, the new advisory has just been issued, and it looks like you were wrong, YE; the forecast discussion says that Cristina seems to be finishing up an ERC. It's kind of a bummer that an ERC had to stop Cristina's strengthening trend like a brick wall after it shot up 25 kts in 6 hours; I'll fashion a guess that we otherwise probably would've gotten our first Category 5 in four years out of this storm. But hey, this is Mother Nature we're talking about, and there's nothing we can really do about it except hope that we finally get a Category 5 later this year (as long as it's away from land, of course!) Anyway, Cristina's still weakening, but at a slower rate than before. 85 kt/973 mbar now. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:41, June 13, 2014 (UTC) ::::I also hope we get a Cat. 5 this year, it'll be incredible to watch the first C5 in the EPac since Celia in 2010 (if it's away from land of course)! Anyway, Cristina was an epic storm, wish it would've become a Category 5 but instead that ERC had to stop its strengthening trend. Bye, Cristina! You were awesome to track! Steve820 15:24, June 13, 2014 (UTC) :::::The ERC of Cristina is nearing completion. The hurricane still has a short window to reintensify before meeting unfavorable conditions. A trough will soon pick up Cristina and cause its acceleration. For now, its intensity is at 80 knots (90 mph, 150 km/h)/978 mbar (hPa; 28.88 inHg) per the NHC and 85 knots (100 mph) per the JTWC, gusting to 105 knots (120 mph). As a general comment about the EPAC, I am very impressed overall with what the basin has given us. As a matter of fact, our ACE (29.2975 units) is already more than ''all of 1977's! AndrewTalk To Me 21:09, June 13, 2014 (UTC) ::::::"Therefore, it is unlikely that Cristina will recover much after the eyewall replacement, and continued steady weakening is expected during the entire forecast period" Wow, this is unfortunate that Cristina will probably be on its way out. The ERC is almost done and there is a brief opportunity for to maintain its intensity. I still think it could strengthen more, but not near to its former intensity (maybe category 2/3). Strong hurricanes like these that don't directly impact land are always interesting to track. This year will be surely full of surprises. EDIT: Looks slightly better right now, and based on microwave imagery it has lost all of its rainbands. If its eye were to clear out, it could resemble that of an annular hurricane. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:29, June 13, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::NHC says it might be able to hang on for another day or so until it powers down even further, since conditions are still favorable. It has a slight chance to rebound up to cat 2 again, but otherwise, from here on out, Cristina will slowly die away. Ryan1000 01:47, June 14, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Cristina (2nd time) The ERC sealed the deal for Cristina. Convective organization has very quickly degraded, and the LLCC is near an elongated convective band. Based on CI numbers, the NHC has downgraded the storm's intensity to 60 knots (70 mph, 110 km/h)/990 mbar (hPa; 29.24 inHg). Gale force winds extend 70 miles (110 km) from the center. Swells will continue to pose a threat for Mexico in the coming day. Through rapid weakening inducted by vertical shear and cold SST's, Cristina should be nothing but a forgotten memory within 48 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 15:44, June 14, 2014 (UTC) :It looks like you beat me to it. :P Anyways, so much for the storm rebounding, it looks to be weakening for good now! Bye Cristina, you were an incredible storm! Steve820 16:09, June 14, 2014 (UTC) :::It might hang on for 3 more days or so until dissipating, but dang, that was incredible to watch. Looks like the EPac has pulled a lot of RI surprises on us lately. I wouldn't be surprised if we see more later in the season. Ryan1000 19:42, June 14, 2014 (UTC) ::::I did some research and it turns out Cristina is the northernmost hurricane this early in the year (06-14) in the EPac proper outside of Boris 1990 and a 1958 storm. Damn is the SST warm for this time of the year - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 01:44, June 15, 2014 (UTC) AoI: Monsoon trough AoI: Monsoon trough Currently off Nicaragua, tailing 94E. Could see a scenario akin to Boris-Cristina 2008. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 01:09, June 8, 2014 (UTC) : It would be pretty impressive to see that this early in the season, though I think it'll be weaker than 94E (Christina) will be. Ryan1000 02:35, June 8, 2014 (UTC) ::Here comes Douglas! I think this could peak as a strong TS (around 60 mph) if it develops. Steve820 15:08, June 8, 2014 (UTC) :::This has no model support. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 23:49, June 8, 2014 (UTC) :::Agree I doubt this will develop.Unless that the MJO helps it but I really doubt it.Allanjeffs 03:55, June 9, 2014 (UTC) ::::It is pretty much stationary over Costa Rica for the time being. I think it could develop but not anytime this week. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 23:03, June 9, 2014 (UTC) :::::Looks like I was being '''way' too optimistic about this :P. I don't think it'll develop until later in the week, but the tropical waves that HurricaneSpin posted about below might also have potential to be our "Douglas" storm along with this AOI. Steve820 03:17, June 10, 2014 (UTC) ::::::This will be amplified by a tropical wave (below section) later tomorrow. A disturbance could develop from the combined system. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 23:58, June 10, 2014 (UTC) :::::::And this combination could result in a named storm by next week. Let's just sit and watch as future-Douglas unfolds. :D Steve820 00:04, June 11, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::Highly doubt it. It has no model support. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 01:21, June 11, 2014 (UTC) Currently just southwest of GoT, merged with tropical wave. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:30, June 13, 2014 (UTC) AoI: Tropical Wave (May 30) AoI: Tropical Wave I think tracking tropical wave progression is rather interesting, if this becomes messy I can get rid of it. Currently there is a huge train of tropical waves and potential contenders for cyclogenesis. The dates on the right side of the title indicates their date of exiting Africa based off of OPC and TWD products. Currently over 70W. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 23:14, June 9, 2014 (UTC) :Crossing into EPac. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 23:59, June 10, 2014 (UTC) ::Energy from this will likely contribute to the next cyclone. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 17:58, June 13, 2014 (UTC) :::Yeah, it merged with the monsoon trough, could see development some distance west, or could just end up dissipating. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:38, June 13, 2014 (UTC) AoI: Tropical Wave (June 4/5) AoI: Tropical Wave Currently over 51W. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 23:14, June 9, 2014 (UTC) :Over Panama. Euro develops this and so does the CMC. GFS does not, but it's acting drunk as of late. This could be Douglas. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 17:59, June 13, 2014 (UTC) ::Yeah, one of these waves could develop into Douglas in the long run. This wave looks particularly interesting though, due to model support by the Euro and CMC, as YE mentioned above. Steve820 16:14, June 14, 2014 (UTC) AoI: Tropical Wave (June 7) AoI: Tropical Wave Currently over 32W. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 23:14, June 9, 2014 (UTC) :Over 60W. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:36, June 13, 2014 (UTC) AoI: Tropical Wave (June 10) AoI: Tropical Wave Over 44W. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:36, June 13, 2014 (UTC) AoI: Tropical Wave (June 12) AoI: Tropical Wave Over 23W. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:36, June 13, 2014 (UTC) Retirements at a glance Mine: *All - 0% --Isaac829 21:10, May 25, 2014 (UTC) YE's: Amanda: 1% since it was epic. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 21:15, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :There is no need for this section! We're only one fish storm in, for crying out loud! Please wait until later. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 21:22, May 25, 2014 (UTC) I agree with Dylan. It's '''way '''too early for this section, but I'm still gonna post mine anyways: *Amanda: 1% - Didn't significantly affect land but was an epic and awesome storm that surprised us by strengthening to strongest May storm in EPac on record! It caused the deaths of 3-4 people which is why it is 1%. *Boris: 2% - Caused destruction in Central America but most likely it isn't getting retired because it only caused 5 deaths. *Cristina: 0% - It was also an epic and awesome storm, similar to Amanda, but it isn't getting the boot due to the storm not affecting land. Steve820 21:30, May 25, 2014 (UTC) (last updated 16:17, June 14, 2014 (UTC)) ::(Edit conflict) Dylan, Amanda was ''definitely not a fish storm because of its extremely rare intensity. AndrewTalk To Me 21:31, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::Whether or not a storm is a fish has zilch to do with its intensity. Fish storms are not necessarily weak storms; they are storms that do not even do so much as breathe on any landmasses during their existence. Amanda falls into that category. Granted, it was still a very impressive hurricane, but a fish storm nonetheless. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 21:39, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::Here's mine (because I want to get a head start (Sorry, Dylan)): (i'll remove the underline when we're further in the season) :::Amanda: 0%- While it was an impressive storm, it isn't going to be retired because it hasn't affected land. :::Boris: 3%- Didn't actually track this storm but I'll give it a 3 because it caused six fatalities. :::Cristina:-'' currently active'' :::leeboy100 (talk) 17:21, June 10, 2014 (UTC) :::Just because something was epic it doesn't mean she needs to get points to be honest right now her chance is 0% it might go up if her remnants or whatever is left gives rain to Mexico and the USA,but I believe they are going to be more beneficial that harmful.Allanjeffs 22:42, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::::Isaac, can we seriously wait on starting this section from now on? We shouldn't begin the retirements section until we either 1) have a decent number of storms, or 2) have something worth retiring. Beginning this right after the "A" storm (which didn't even affect land) is premature and we won't get a meaningful discussion out of it, it's pretty obvious to everyone that Amanda won't get retired. Wait a little more from now on. Ryan1000 04:55, May 26, 2014 (UTC) :::::So Amanda may get 1% after all she killed three to four people in Mexico.Allanjeffs 01:31, June 3, 2014 (UTC)